‘Trump effect’ raises hopes for cannabis rally as investors bet on federal reforms, softer marijuana stance

by | Nov 1, 2025 | Business

In this articleWEED-CATLRYCRON-CAACB-CAFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNTOils containing CBD (Cannabidiol).Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt | AFP | Getty ImagesCannabis stocks could be poised for a rally after years of stagnation, fueled by investor optimism over the possibility for new federal rules for hemp-derived products and signals that President Donald Trump could take a more permissive stance on marijuana.Publicly traded cannabis companies have seen their share of ups and downs. Verano Holdings reported earnings Wednesday that saw revenues of $203 million, up slightly from the previous quarter but down 6% year-over-year. However, Verano posted a net loss of $44 million, partly due to a $5 million impairment charge on a facility in Pennsylvania and $10 million in legal contingencies as a result of a settlement.Next week, two U.S. cannabis giants, Curaleaf and Trulieve, are set to follow in reporting earnings. While the sector is down roughly 10% this year, based on cannabis-focused ETFs, some executives, like the CEO of Tilray Brands, remain optimistic for a turnaround. Already, in October, Tilray Brands’ stock jolted up 22% after reporting better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.”We could be looking at a true inflection point for cannabis. If reforms move forward, it could attract more companies to do business in the U.S.,” Tilray CEO Irwin Simon told CNBC.[embedded content]Cannabis company stocks Tilray Brands, Curaleaf and TrulieveThree developments are driving the growth: Trump’s seeming embrace of Medicare coverage for CBD, a non-intoxicating hemp-derived cannabis compound; the president’s statements about reclassifying the drug status of marijuana; and movement in Congress to regulate hemp.Meanwhile, cannabis is becoming more popular than ever. As of a 2024 report, daily or near-daily marijuana use surpassed daily drinking in the U.S., based on analysis of 40 years of data from Carnegie Mellon University.The annual value of the U.S. production of cannabis grew 40% last year from the previous year, according to the Department of Agriculture, and cannabis-derived products, which include CBD and marijuana-based items, are now projected to reach a $160 billion global market by 2032, according to Grand View Research.[embedded content]The ‘Trump effect’Optimism in the cannabis market surged in September after Trump shared a video on Truth Social that promoted Medicare coverage of CBD and made unproven anti-aging claims about the substance. The video was produced by The Commonwealth Project — which advocates for seniors using cannabis and was founded and is funded by Palm Beach billionaire Howard Kessler — and directly appealed to the president.Known for pioneering affinity credit cards, Kessler shifted to cannabis advocacy in 2019 but has been in Trump’s orbit since at least 2005, attending Trump’s wedding to Melania Trump and appearing at Mar-a-Lago and state dinners. Neither Kessler nor the White House responded to a request for comment on the matter.Cannabis stocks reacted immediately to the video. On the day it was posted, shares of Tilray spiked 42%, while Aurora Cannabis stock gained 25%, shares of Canopy Growth jumped 18% and Cronos Group stock added 15.5%.”A lot of folks in the industry saw him [Trump] posting the video as a bit of a surprise but we think he’s trying to gauge how the public feels about cannabis products,” said Adam Smith, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, which advocates for the legalization of marijuana. “Some people call it the ‘Trump effect,’ and think if he leans into CBD, it’s possible that other Republicans will support.”There is limited data on effective doses of CBD for inflammation or chronic pain, particularly in seniors, according to the National Institutes of Health. Kevin Sabet, president of Smart Approaches to Marijuana, an organization opposed to marijuana, said people are overreacting to the post.”It’s a big stretch to say a post or two is a fully throated endorsement of reform,” Sabet told CNBC. “A lot of times his posts don’t line up with formal policy positions.”To date, the FDA has only approved one CBD-based drug, Epidiolex, to treat rare forms of epilepsy. Other uses lack scientific evidence and have “largely unknown” effects, said Meg Haney, director of the Cannabis Research Laboratory at Columbia University. …

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