A sale sign is seen at car dealer Serramonte Subaru in Colma, California.Stephen Lam | ReutersDETROIT — U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to rise next year to their highest level since 2019, led by lower interest rates and improving affordability, according to industry analysts.Cox Automotive expects new light-duty vehicle sales to hit 16.3 million in 2025, slightly higher than forecasts by S&P Global Mobility and Edmunds of roughly 16.2 million sales next year. Such sales would be up from expectations of 15.9 million to 16 million this year and mark the highest results since roughly 17 million in 2019.That would equate to a forecast sales gain in new cars and trucks of 2.5% or less. The increase is expected to be driven by a continuing “normalization” of vehicle inventories, incentives/discounts from automakers, and easing financing and loan rates.”Consumers are still feeling the pinch, but the market has become a slightly friendlier place for car shoppers than it was at the start of the year,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said in a Tuesday release.One of the largest growth markets is expected to be entry-level and less expensive vehicles. The industry has been dealing with years of elevated prices and lower inventories since the coronavirus pandemic.Edmunds reports the average transaction price for new vehicles was $47,465 in 2024, a 0.8% decrease compared with $47,851 in 2023, and a 27.2% increase compared with $37,310 in 2019.EVsAnother expected growth area remains electrified vehicles, including hybrids, plug-in hybrid and all-electric models, according to analysts.All-electric vehicle sales in the U.S. are forecast to set another record in 2024, with total sales volume near 1.3 million, according to Cox. That would mark roughly 8% market share, up from 7.6% compared with last year but lower than expectations of 10% earlier this year.That’s despite a forecast year-over-year decline in U.S. EV leader Tesla’s sales for the first time since 2014.”The top three manufacturers are Tesla, Hyundai Motor Group and General Motors, with GM having the largest increase in market share year over year at 2.7% at the brand level. Even though Tesla’s market share has declined below 50%, the Model Y and Model 3 continue to hold the top two spots,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox director of industry insights, on Tuesday. “Various other models are collectively taking away share from Tesla.”C …
