Howard Marks, one of the most respected value investors who famously foresaw the dotcom bubble, is pointing out a handful of red flags in the market like valuation that could mean poor returns over the long term or a sizable decline nearer term. In his latest memo to clients, the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management laid out five cautionary signs he’s seeing in the stock market after the S & P 500 ‘s best two-year run since 1998. Marks made clear that he’s not necessarily calling a bubble in stocks since his specialty lies in credit these days, but the memo focuses on signs of froth in equities. “It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the return on an investment is significantly a function of the price paid for it. For that reason, investors clearly shouldn’t be indifferent to today’s market valuation,” Marks wrote. Marks’ memo pegs the S & P 500’s current price-to-earnings ratio at 22. Using data from JPMorgan Asset Management, Marks explained that higher PE ratios have historically led to lower returns in the long run. Today’s multiple of 22 is near the top of the range, and this level would translate into 10-year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%, the data showed. Rather than poor performance in the long term, it’s also possible that the c …
