Tehran, Iran – Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States promises Iran a rocky road that could lead to different outcomes when it comes to its relations with the West, analysts say.US leaders, along with Israelis, have been openly discussing military strikes on top Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure like power plants and oil and petrochemical facilities.
Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have held large-scale military exercises, predominantly focusing on defending sensitive sites.
A shift, but to where?
For more than two decades, Iran’s relationship with the West has largely been defined by developments in the country’s nuclear programme and efforts to stop it from getting a bomb. Tehran has consistently maintained that it does not seek a weapon of mass destruction.
Recently, top political and military authorities in Iran have been discussing the possibility of shifting Tehran’s officially stated policy of not pursuing a nuclear weapon amid rising security threats. Advertisement
There seem to be two schools of thought in Tehran: one appears open to the possibility of engaging the US, including on the nuclear programme, and another is vocal about pursuing a weapon, especially given the erosion of deterrence against Israel and setbacks to its regional allies, Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group, pointed out.
“But if the former camp prevails, it will still req …