(RNS) — American organized religion is a bit like a scene from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” It has been on the decline for decades, but churches aren’t dead yet.
A new survey from Nashville-based Lifeway Research found that 94% of Protestant pastors believe their church will still be open in 10 years, with 78% strongly agreeing that will be true.
Four percent of pastors say their church will close, with the other 2% saying they don’t know, according to the survey released Tuesday (April 15). Conducted over the phone, it surveyed 1,003 randomly selected Protestant pastors between Aug. 8 and Sept. 3, 2024.
Those pastors may be right, say researchers who study the American religious landscape. Duke University sociologist Mark Chaves, who runs the National Congregations Study, said past studies found that about 1 in 100 churches close each year. So, the idea that most churches will be around in 10 years isn’t surprising.
“An interesting thing about churches as organizations is that they have ways of staying alive in a very weakened state,” Chaves said in an email. “Other organizations would close, but weak churches have ways of staying alive.”
“More than 9 in 10 pastors believe their church will still exist in a decade.” (Graphic courtesy of Lifeway Research)
Scott Thumma, director of the Hartford Institute for Religion Research, said the long-term trends for congregations are more worrisome. But in the short term, congregations have become more optimistic.
In a 2021 study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on congregations, 7% of …