The 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War, offers both inspiration and a stark warning. It succeeded in halting bloodshed, but at the cost of long-term dysfunction. Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged divided, politically paralysed, and perpetually dependent on international oversight. Ukraine cannot afford to follow that path.A rushed or externally imposed settlement – especially one prioritising “balance” over functionality – risks turning Ukraine into a fractured, weakened state locked in limbo. The temptation to accept any peace to stop the war must be resisted. Not all peace is created equal.
The Dayton Agreement created two autonomous entities within Bosnia, each with its own president, parliament, and bureaucracy, and governed by a collective presidency that required consensus. The result? More than 180 ministers for a population under 3.5 million, and a state too fragmented to govern or reform. Ethnic divisions were frozen into law, and nationalist deadlock has since stymied progress, including efforts towards European Union membership. Advertisement
Ukraine faces a similar risk if a peace deal grants “special status” or federal autonomy to Russian-occupied territories like Donbas. Such an arrangement would embed dysfunction and division at the heart of Ukraine’s political system. Pro-Russian proxies with veto power could block defence, foreign policy, or EU and NATO integration – giving Moscow influence in Kyiv without firing another shot.
Worse still, this would create an internal deadlo …
