Ups and Downs by KAWS, estimated£30000-£50000, on display during a preview at the Phillips showroom in central London, ahead of their forthcoming Evening and Day Editions auction. Picture date: Friday January 17, 2025. (Photo by Ian West/PA Images via Getty Images)Ian West – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesA version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.Auction sales have been declining for the third year in a row, as dealers, auctioneers and collectors ponder a deeper crisis in the art market.Auction sales for the first half of the year at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips fell to $3.98 billion, a drop of 6% compared with the same period in 2024, according to ArtTactic. The auction total is the lowest in at least a decade (setting aside the 2020 pandemic) and is now down 44% — or more than $3 billion — from 2022. The declines follow a 19% drop in 2023 and 26% decline in 2024.[embedded content]Postwar and contemporary art, which has been the main engine of growth for art auctions in recent decades, fell by an even greater 19% in the first half, according to ArtTactic.”Lingering concerns over global economic growth, ongoing inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on confidence and creating a more cautious investment climate,” ArtTactic said. “These factors are likely to challenge the market’s momentum in the second half of the year, as the industry adapts to a still-uncertain global landscape.”Those lingering concerns, however, aren’t showing up in other areas of the wealth economy. The prosperity of the wealthy is at record levels, with the top 10% of Americans adding $37 trillion to their wealth since Covid, marking a 45% increase. Stock markets were up more than 20% in both 2023 and 2024 and are up again so far in 2025. Housing values and business valuations have also soared, adding to personal wealth.Yale professor William Goetzmann has studied the relationship between art prices and financial wealth going back over 300 years and found they are “highly correlated.””Demand for art increases with the wealth of art collectors,” he wrote in his famous paper “Accounting for Taste, Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries.”With personal wealth at all-time highs, however, Goetzmann said the 300-year correlation is broken. He said there are one of two explanations for the divergence: Either the dip in the art market is a temporary aberration and will …
