Could far-right Reform really win a UK general election now?

by | Jul 3, 2025 | World

The far-right, nationalist Reform UK party would be Britain’s largest political party if a general election were held now, a major new poll shows, putting its founder, Nigel Farage, on a potential course to become the country’s next prime minister.Reform would win 271 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, with the ruling Labour Party second at 178 seats, polling firm YouGov said on June 26. That would leave a hung parliament, with one party only able to form a government in coalition with another.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s popularity has tanked since last year’s landslide general election victory, owing to a challenging global backdrop, slow economic growth and a series of embarrassing policy U-turns on welfare reform.
Last week’s census was YouGov’s first “mega-poll” since Labour came to power. As well as showing the rapid rise in popularity of Reform and the reversal of favour for Labour, it also shows a collapse in support for the formerly ruling Conservative Party.
The Conservative Party, which suffered its worst ever general election loss last July, would win just 46 seats in an election, down from 120, leaving the party in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, YouGov said.
The Greens, meanwhile, would win 11 percent of the vote, picking up several new seats to hold seven altogether. In Scotland, the SNP would return to dominance, gaining 29 seats to win 38 overall.
The next election is not expected until 2029.
British MP and Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage speaks during the party’s local elections campaign launch at Utilita Arena Birmingham, in …

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