Trump’s state visit is mired with potential pitfalls despite careful planning

[mwai_chat context=”Let’s have a discussion about this article:nn9 hours agoShareSaveJames LandaleDiplomatic correspondentShareSaveBBCUS President Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom this week will be no stranger to controversy, just as his first was six years ago.Back then, in June 2019, as well as taking tea with the late Queen, the US President called London Mayor Sadiq Khan “a stone-cold loser”, backed Boris Johnson in a Tory leadership race and suggested the NHS should be part of US-UK trade talks.All this was accompanied by a petition saying he should not receive a state visit in the UK, signed by more than one million people, as well as noisy protests involving thousands and a huge inflatable effigy that became known as the Trump Baby.This week’s second state visit – unprecedented for a non-royal – will prove the first was no exception. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty ImagesThere will again be protests and Lord Mandelson’s sacking as UK ambassador to the US has already cast a diplomatic pall over proceedings.Planning for the visit – over Wednesday and Thursday – has gone on for months, but for all the careful preparation, the possibility that things could go wrong is still very real. And for many of those organising it, the Mandelson affair is only one of their worries.How Windsor became ‘Trumpton’For those at the royal end of the show, the focus has been on logistics and security – and turning Windsor Castle into a ring of steel hard enough to satisfy even the most fastidious secret service agents.Such has been the huge American presence some locals have renamed Windsor “Trumpton”, after the eponymous town in the 1970s children’s TV show.Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty ImagesFor Palace officials, attention to detail is all.One of the biggest problems has been finding a place to muster the Household Cavalry.It needs to be far enough from the helicopter landing zones to ensure the horses are not spooked by the noise, close enough to form the escort quickly that will accompany the Trumps’ carriage procession through the grounds of Windsor Castle.There has also been much discussion between the Palace and Foreign Office over who sits where at the State Banquet in St George’s Hall.”The value of these things are not just the photo opportunities but also all the off-grid conversations,” said one royal insider. “A huge amount of attention goes into the seating plan for the banquet. So people with certain policy areas are sat next to one another.”Jonathan Brady – WPA Pool/Getty ImagesMuch thought, too, is devoted to the menu and the music which will involve “lots of nods to his Scottish heritage”.King Charles III’s seven-minute speech at the banquet has gone through many drafts, ensuring he pushes the right buttons without crossing political lines.Officials say they have been given no indication by their US counterparts of what Trump may say in his speech.’Pressure to make this massive’So far, so logistical – but the key challenge for royal organisers has been finding a way of ensuring Trump feels he has been given a full state visit with all the trimmings. That is no easy task.The president is on the ground for less than 48 hours and will not visit Downing Street, address Parliament or even find time to play a round of golf.”There has been a large amount of government pressure to make this massive and that’s been the challenge,” one courtier told me.Jeff Gilbert – WPA Pool/Getty ImagesThe scale of the ceremonial at Windsor has been stepped up, with 1,300 troops and 120 horses involved – far more than those used when President Macron of France visited earlier this year. (It’s a point that will no doubt be emphasised to the Americans in private.)For the ceremonial hoopla is the overwhelming focus of the White House in this visit; a chance for the President to be photographed with the King and Queen and the Prince and Princess of Wales, along with military parades and bands and the Red Arrows.One Whitehall source said: “The focus is very much on the optics, the historic moment, the pomp. For Trump it’s all about TV and this is great TV.”Another said: “It’s theatre. It’s all show. It’s not like we are going to do deep substance. We are sucking up to the most powerful guy in the world for good reason.”Peter Nicholls/Getty ImagesThe Trumps: Warm and solicitous guestsLord McDonald, a former top civil servant in the Foreign Office, said the UK’s strategic choice to afford the most powerful man in the world “the fullest honour British protocol allows” will be watched closely by the rest of the world.”This state visit is not just a UK-US event,” he said. “It will be one of the biggest stories around the world. “The rest of the world will be looking at London and Windsor, burnishing the UK’s wider international standing.”Many officials are confident the visit will go smoothly, simply because all sides want it to succeed.They emphasise that Palace staff thought the Trumps were warm and solicitous guests in 2019, both keen not to put a foot wrong. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images”Trump can be quite funny in private,” said one diplomat. “He has got quite a neat turn of phrase that the King will appreciate.”For the UK government, the overwhelming aim is for Air Force One to take off on Thursday evening with Trump warmly disposed to Britain.Serious business behind the pageantryBeyond providing a day of royal pageantry, the government has business to conduct on Thursday when proceedings move to the prime minister’s country residence at Chequers.Ministers hope to complete a deal to exclude UK steel and aluminium from US tariffs. There will be some new civil nuclear cooperation.The centrepiece is set to be the signing of a technology partnership, involving new investment in Britain and greater cooperation with Silicon Valley on artificial intelligence and quantum computing.This was Lord Mandelson’s priority, something he described in his outgoing letter to embassy staff last week as “my personal pride and joy”, that he claimed would “help write the next chapter of the special relationship”.All these issues will be portrayed as big domestic “wins” to help promote the government’s growth agenda.Carl Court – Pool/Getty ImagesThe visit will also provide Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer with a significant opportunity to bend the ear of the president just a week before the United Nations general assembly in New York, especially on Ukraine.Jeremy Hunt, who as Foreign Secretary was heavily involved in the last Trump state visit, said this was a key chance to shape the president’s thinking.”Trump appears to be on a journey away from Putin, towards recognising that he needs a way of standing with his European allies a bit better,” Hunt said.”What the government will really be wanting to do is continue that journey, looking for a deal to impose more sanctions on countries buying Russian oil.”Leon Neal/Getty ImagesSophia Gaston, senior research fellow at King’s College London, said the state visit was an important chance for the UK to influence US policy at a crucial stage of the Trump administration, a window of opportunity between its disruptive first six months and next year when its focus may shift to domestic elections and strategic competition with China.”We are moving into a new phase,” she said. “This state visit really does matter. It is about us securing a foothold as the primary symbolic and strategic ally of the United States.”The Mandelson questionFor all these potential gains, the risks are huge and the most obvious involves, of course, Lord Mandelson.The peer’s dismissal as ambassador, after revelations of the scale of his friendship with Jeff …nnDiscussion:nn” ai_name=”RocketNews AI: ” start_sentence=”Can I tell you more about this article?” text_input_placeholder=”Type ‘Yes'”]