How a lapse in SNAP benefits could affect consumers and retailers

by | Oct 29, 2025 | Business

A man holds a sign reading “SNAP Feeds Families,” as food aid benefits will be suspended starting November 1 amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, during “A Rally for SNAP” on the steps of the Massachusetts Statehouse in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., October 28, 2025. Brian Snyder | ReutersNearly 42 million Americans are days away from missing their monthly food stamp check as the government shutdown enters its 28th day.The Trump administration has said funds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, will not be distributed if the federal government is still shut down on Nov. 1. With little movement toward a resolution on Capitol Hill, Congress appears set to blow past that deadline.The expiration of aid would have a devastating effect on millions of households already struggling to afford food, and force people across the country to seek help at food banks. The lapse in that spending would also have a ripple effect on the economy, from small grocers to massive chains like Walmart and even retailers that sell discretionary merchandise.There will be “an immediate effect on the purchasing mix” toward lower profit margin groceries and household staples, and the potential for more theft as food budgets dry up, Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus wrote in a note to investors Monday. Consumer confidence among lower-income Americans could also take a hit heading into the holiday season, Hanus said.SNAP recipients received an average of about $187 per month in fiscal 2024, according to government data. Among those beneficiaries, 73% live below the poverty line, which is currently $32,150 or less for a family of four.Following years of high food inflation and other recent hits to the size of government benefits, the loss of that assistance would be a massive blow to many low-income Americans.Consumers who use SNAP benefits to pay for groceries spend more, and shop more often, than other shoppers, according to data from Numerator. On average, a SNAP beneficiary spends $832 per month on groceries, 20% more than a non-SNAP shopper, though the amount spent on each trip averages 12% less, or about $20.80 per outing, the market research company said. SNAP shoppers visit more retailers per month at 6.6, compared to 6.1 for people who don’t receive the aid, according to Numerator.Hanus said his firm is seeing Google search interest for “food banks” and “food stamps” su …

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