Tourists visit the Huangguoshu Waterfall of “Monkey King” fame in China’s Guizhou province on Oct. 5, 2025, during a week-long public holiday.Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesBEIJING — The World Bank on Tuesday raised its 2025 growth forecast for China as part of an overall boost in projections for East Asia and the Pacific, after a summer that saw U.S. tariff-led uncertainty rock the global economy.The World Bank now projects China’s economy to expand by 4.8%, compared with 4% predicted in April. The new forecast is closer to China’s official target of around 5% growth in gross domestic product in 2025.The economists did not provide a specific reason for the change in forecast from April, but noted that China’s economy has benefited from government support that could fade next year.Trade tensions between China and the U.S. escalated in April, temporarily sending U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to well over 100% before the two countries reached a trade truce — now in effect until mid-November. For now, U.S. tariffs on China are 57.6%, more than double where they were at the start of the year.China ramped up stimulus in late 2024 and has maintained targeted consumer trade-in programs this year to support retail sales. The country’s exports, a major driver of its growth, have continued to rise so far this year, as shipments to Southeast Asia and Europe have offset a sharp decline in exports to the U.S. Businesses ramping up orders ahead of higher tariffs have also helped support China’s exports.Growth in exports helped China offset drags on domestic growth such as the ongoing real estate slump and tepid consumer spending. But that momentum is expected to slow.The World Bank projects China’s GDP growth to ease to 4.2% in 2026, partly due to slower exports growth. Economists also anticipate that Beijing will tone down stimulus to keep public debt levels from rising too quickly, while China’s overall economic growth slows compared with its rapid expansion in past years.China’s retail sales rose just 3.4% …
