Fed minutes show divide over October rate cut and cast doubt about December

by | Nov 19, 2025 | Financial

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Fed cut interest rates by quarter of a percentage point, in Washington, D.C., U.S., Oct. 29, 2025. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersFederal Reserve officials were at odds during their October meeting over cutting interest rates, divided over whether a stalling labor market or stubborn inflation were bigger economic threats, minutes released Wednesday showed.While the Federal Open Market Committee approved a cut at the meeting, the path forward looks less certain. Disagreements stretched into the outlook for December, with officials expressing skepticism about the need for an additional reduction that markets had been widely anticipating, with “many” saying that no more cuts are needed at least in 2025.”Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period,” the minutes said. “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”In Fed parlance, “many” is more than “several,” indicating a tilt against a December cut. However, “participants” does not denote voters. There are 19 participants at the meeting, but only 12 vote, so it’s unclear how the voting members’ sentiment is set for a December move.However, the notation jibes with a statement at Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting news conference. Powell told reporters that a December cut was not a “foregone conclusion.”Previous to Powell’s statement, traders had been pricing in a near certainty of another move at the Dec. 9-10 session. As of Wednesd …

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