Home Depot cuts earnings outlook as home improvement demand falls short of expectations

by | Nov 18, 2025 | Business

In this articleHDFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe Home Depot logo is displayed on a sign outside of a store on Sept. 6, 2025 in San Diego, California. Kevin Carter | Getty ImagesHome Depot on Tuesday cut its full-year profit forecast and missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third straight quarter as it saw weaker home improvement demand, tepid consumer spending and lower-than-usual storm activity.The retailer said it now expects full-year sales will climb about 3% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to be slightly positive. That compares with its previous expectations for full-year sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales to increase by 1%.The revised outlook includes an estimated $2 billion in incremental revenue from GMS, a building products distributor that Home Depot acquired earlier this year. The company’s sales were not part of its previous full-year guidance.Home Depot expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to decline by about 5% from the year-ago period, compared with its prior expectations that they would fall by about 2%In a CNBC interview, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the retailer previously expected home improvement activity would increase. It also anticipated higher sales of roofing materials, generators and other supplies that typically sell before and after seasonal storms.Neither dynamic materialized, he said, putting pressure on the business. “When we set guidance, we had anticipated that demand would begin to accelerate gradually in the back half of the year as interest rates and mortgage rates eased,” he said. “But what we saw was that ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.”Here’s what Home Depot reported for the fiscal third quarter compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:Earnings per share: $3.74 adjusted vs. $3.84 expectedRevenue: $41.35 billion vs. $41.10 billion expectedHome Depot’s stock were down about 4% in early trading on Tuesday. As of Monday’s close, the company’s shares are down about 8% so far this year. That trails the S&P 500’s 13% gains during the same period.For Home Depot, housing turnover typically sparks larger and more lucrative projects as customers fix up their homes before or after moving. Those big projects, however, have dropped in frequency as higher interest rates have led to steeper mortgage rates and borrowing costs for loans, which a homeowner may use to pay for a kitchen remodel or major addition.Since roughly the middle of 2023, McPhail has told CNBC that homeowners have been in a “deferral mindset.” That’s led to a bit of a waiting game for Home Depot, as it holds out for either lower mortgage rates or a shift by consumers who get used to higher mortgage rates as the new normal.In the most recent three-month period, that waiting game continued. McPhail told CNBC that demand was “stable” from the fiscal second quarter to the third quarter when adjusting for the lack of hurricanes. But, he added, “at this point, it’s hard to identify near-term catalysts that would lead to acceleration.” Home Depot’s net income for the three-month period that ended Nov. 2 dropped to $3.60 billion, or $3.62 per share, from $3.65 billion, or $3.67 per share, in the ye …

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