A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.The recovery in commercial real estate has been slow and bumpy, much like interest rate policy over the past few years. The two, of course, are deeply connected. After gaining significant momentum coming out of the pandemic, this year has been rough. October was the first month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth since the post-Fed rate hike recovery began in early 2024, according to monthly data provided by Moody’s as a media exclusive to CNBC’s Property Play. It tracks the top 50 commercial real estate, or CRE, property sales across the U.S.Deal volume growth turned positive in the early part of last year and was even approaching pre-Covid levels by year-end. “More than an imminent downturn in the CRE capital markets, the slip to negative growth in October 2025 reflects the stalemate going on between buyers and sellers,” said Kevin Fagan, head of CRE capital market research at Moody’s. “The bottom of the U-shaped recovery from 2023 low volumes has been lengthened by persistently high interest rates and policy and economic uncertainty of 2025.” But October was still an active month. There were $24.4 billion of sales, which is roughly 70% of October 2019 sales. Total dollar volume is still higher this year than it was last year, but the momentum of growth has slowed significantly since 2023.Looking at specific property trends, industrial and multifamily led the top 50 deals. The only sector to improve in deal volume compared with last year was hotel. It saw 6% growth after a negative thi …
