Why the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire is failing

by | Dec 14, 2025 | World

Thailand’s sudden return to the use of force along its frontier with Cambodia is a blunt reminder of how volatile one of Southeast Asia’s most enduring territorial disputes remains. The pace of the latest escalation is startling. Only weeks earlier, leaders from both countries stood before regional and international dignitaries at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, endorsing a ceasefire framework that was presented as a political breakthrough. The symbolism was heavy, a truce blessed by regional leaders and witnessed by United States President Donald Trump meant to signal that Southeast Asia could manage its own tensions responsibly.Yet that promise evaporated almost as soon as the delegations returned home. Bangkok’s air strikes on Cambodian positions in contested border pockets triggered immediate evacuations.What this sequence reveals is painfully familiar. Ceasefires in this dispute have rarely been more than pauses in a long cycle of distrust. Agreements are signed in conference halls, but the frontier itself has its own rhythm – one shaped by longstanding grievances, competing national narratives and the difficulties of managing heavily armed forces operating in ambiguous terrain.The ceasefire endorsed at the ASEAN summit was constructed as the foundation for a broader roadmap. It committed both sides to cease hostilities, halt troop movements and gradually scale down the deployment of heavy weapons near contested areas. Crucially, it tasked ASEAN with deploying monitoring teams to observe compliance. Advertisement On pap …

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