As Kenya prepares for its next general election, due in less than 20 months’ time, 2026 will prove to be a critical year. With local and global restraints on political violence being hollowed out at the very time when trust in the credibility of the election system is at an all-time low, serious trouble beckons unless urgent steps are taken.Violence in Kenyan elections is rarely the product of that perennial bogeyman, tribalism. It is almost exclusively a state-generated phenomenon that requires a particular alignment of circumstances. Two matter above all else: first, whether the election itself is credible; second, whether the incumbent is running for re-election.Since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1991, Kenya has had seven competitive presidential elections. It was only in four of them that significant violence was witnessed; in all four, the inevitably unpopular incumbent was running. In 2002, 2013 and 2022, when no incumbent was on the ballot, violence was comparatively muted, even where the credibility of the election itself was contested.The lesson is clear. It is the efforts to improve the credibility of the election and to enforce institutional restraints on state actors that are the best safeguard.Kenya has come some way in this regard since the conflagration …
