It’s the question on everyone’s minds and lips: Are we in an AI bubble?It’s the wrong question. The real question is: Which AI bubble are we in, and when will each one burst?The debate over whether AI represents a transformative technology or an economic time bomb has reached a fever pitch. Even tech leaders like Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg have acknowledged evidence of an unstable financial bubble forming around AI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates see clear bubble dynamics: overexcited investors, frothy valuations and plenty of doomed projects — but they still believe AI will ultimately transform the economy.But treating “AI” as a single monolithic entity destined for a uniform collapse is fundamentally misguided. The AI ecosystem is actually three distinct layers, each with different economics, defensibility and risk profiles. Understanding these layers is critical, because they won’t all pop at once. Layer 3: The wrapper companies (first to fall)The most vulnerable segment isn’t building AI — it’s repackaging it.These are the companies that take OpenAI’s API, add a slick interface and some prompt engineering, then charge $49/month for what amounts to a glorified ChatGPT wrapper. Some have achieved rapid initial success, like Jasper.ai, which reached approximately $42 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in its first year by wrapping GPT models in a user-friendly interface for marketers.But the cracks are already showing. These businesses face threats from every direction:Feature absorption: Microsoft can bundle your $50/month AI writing tool into Office 365 tomorrow. Google can make your AI email assistant a free Gmail feature. Salesforce can build your AI sales tool natively into their CRM. When large platforms decide your product is a feature, not a product, your business model evaporates overnight.The commoditization trap: Wrapper companies are essentially just passing inputs and outputs, if OpenAI impro …
