Iran is living through one of the most dangerous moments in its post-revolutionary history. Nationwide protests have become sustained rather than episodic. As a new wave of unrest has spread across the country, violence has intensified. The true death toll cannot be verified yet.These events have revived a familiar question: Is Iran heading towards another 1979?The temptation to rely on this analogy is understandable. Images of mass mobilisation and rapidly recurring protests evoke memories of the final months of the shah’s rule. Yet the comparison is ultimately misleading.The success of the 1979 revolution cannot be explained solely by mass mobilisation. Instead, it was the convergence of coordinated opposition under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and, more decisively, the ruling elites’ inability to effectively repress dissent that ensured its triumph.Mohammad Reza Shah had cancer, was heavily medicated and was visibly indecisive. His leadership faltered during crises. He left the country twice amid political upheaval, first in 1953 after being challenged by Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and again in January 1979 as protests spread nationwide.Equally important, the shah’s repressive apparatus was fragmented and socially heterogeneous. Apart from SAVAK, the shah’s central intelligence organi …
