US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell arrives for a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026. Brendan Smialowski | Afp | Getty ImagesIn what could be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Federal Reserve chair, he is expected to lead his fellow policymakers toward another cautious pause, with stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market leaving little room yet for interest rate cuts.The decision Wednesday will come against a backdrop of elevated energy prices and a central bank that has been above its 2% inflation target for five years at the same time that the labor market has been weak but not in distress. That’s not a recipe for easing, at least not yet.”On the dual mandate, they’d say we’re roughly at a stable labor market,” Roger Ferguson, an economist and former vice chair at the Fed, told CNBC. “On the inflation side of the mandate, [there’s] a lot more work to be done with a sticky 3% [inflation rate], and I hope they argue, ‘we’re going to sit tight for a little while to see how this all plays out.'”Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expects the post-meeting statement “is likely to acknowledge the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers but to leave the standing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a strong consensus to stay on hold for now, with only one dissent, as in March.”So with little drama over the rate decision — markets are pricing in a 100% chance of the FOMC staying on hold — attention will turn squarely to Powell.Unless something unexpected pops up, the chair’s designated successor, Kevin Warsh, appears on track to take over when Powell’s term ends in May.The transition clouds the usual signaling value of Powell’s post-meeting news conference. Inflation the keyPowell’s …
