22V Research sees levels for bond yields and oil prices that could throw cold water on the bull market — and the firm is warning that they’re not too far off. Dennis DeBusschere, chief market strategist at the firm, said investors he surveyed expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5% or oil prices topping $115 per barrel to cause “demand destruction,” or gross domestic product growth falling below 1% over multiple quarters. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Tuesday climbed to its highest level since early 2025, and it was last seen trading at about 4.65%. DeBusschere said the yield hitting 5% “could be upon us shortly” if the Strait of Hormuz — the key passageway for crude that’s been mostly shuttered since the U.S.-Iran War began — is not reopened soon. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield in 2026 “The unusually sharp increase in 10yr yields over the past week has increased tail risk,” DeBusschere wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. “The economic known unknown is how intense and long lasting supply constraints will be. Something could break.” When global 10-year yields move as suddenly as they have recently, DeBusschere said investors become worried that “something bad can happen.” Brent crude futures, a global oil benchmark, traded above $110 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent has s …
