State Representative Claire Valdez, a Democrat from New York and US House candidate, from left, Brad Lander, former New York City comptroller and US Democratic House candidate for New York, Zohran Mamdani, mayor of New York, and Darializa Avila Chevalier, US Democratic House candidate for New York, during a “Get Out The Vote” rally ahead of a primary election at Kings Theater in the Brooklyn borough of New York, US, on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesOn Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces his first major electoral test since his election in November 2025. This time, while Mamdani isn’t on the ballot, his power to swing voters is. Mamdani has endorsed three candidates in competitive congressional primaries in the city: former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander in New York’s 10th congressional district, New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in NY-7 and first-time candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the mayor will go two for three. Speculators place 54% odds that Valdez and Lander will be victorious, while Chevalier loses. They also give a 28% chance that all three candidates win, and a 20% chance that only Lander wins. Those odds are based on individual combo contracts, where all three events of each individual candidate either winning or losing need to happen for the trades to resolve to “yes.” Outcomes on the combo contracts are verified by the New York State Board of Elections.Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.Lander, an ally of Mamdani, is challenging Democratic incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. Goldman has been under fire from left-leaning critics for his support of Israel in the district that includes downtown Manhattan and Park Slope in Brooklyn.[embedded content] …
