Ron Avi Astor, a leading scholar of school violence at UCLA, announced at the American Educational Research Association annual meeting in April that he has fundamentally reconsidered his long-held beliefs about what causes school shootings. For decades, Astor advocated for interventions focused on improving school climate, reducing bullying, and strengthening social-emotional learning—approaches that many schools have adopted through counseling programs, restorative justice initiatives, and trauma-informed care practices.
These school-based efforts have produced measurable benefits. Student reports of bringing weapons to schools have declined significantly over the past quarter century, and schools have generally become safer environments. However, this improvement has not translated into a reduction in actual school shooting incidents. Astor presented data showing that while weapon possession among California students declined steadily since the Columbine High School massacre, school shootings nationally have increased sharply during the same period.
Astor attributes his shift in thinking to a closer examination of what actually motivates many perpetrators. Rather than being primarily driven by bullying or trauma experiences, he now believes many shooters are motivated by a desire for national attention and notoriety. These individuals study previous massacres, participate in online communities, and aim to generate media coverage. According to Astor, many shooters have suicidal ideation and deliberately turn to mass violence to ensure they will be remembered.
This reframing has led Astor to propose substantially different prevention strategies. Instead of focusing exclusively on school-level interventions, he recommends that journalists and social media platforms adopt guidelines limiting coverage of perpetrators, delaying publication of manifestos and videos, and emphasizing victims in their reporting. Astor compares school shootings to suicide contagions and terrorism, where extensive publicity can inspire copycat incidents. He acknowledges the difficulty of persuading media entities and online platforms to change practices but contends the approach warrants consideration.
Astor’s public reversal demonstrates a willingness among researchers to abandon previously held positions when evidence no longer supports them—a relatively uncommon occurrence in scientific communities.
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