Canada has advanced a proposed pipeline project to transport one million barrels per day from the Edmonton region to southern British Columbia, with Trans Mountain designated as the public-sector builder and operator. The project involves a partnership structure including Trans Mountain, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, and Pembina. Despite these developments, the underlying commercial rationale for the pipeline remains uncertain.
According to the Alberta Energy Regulator, raw bitumen production is forecast to increase by approximately 503,000 barrels per day between 2024 and 2034. When accounting for upgrading and blending requirements, the visible growth in oil-sands-related pipeline volumes reaches roughly 560,000 barrels per day. This projection leaves the proposed pipeline with capacity nearly double the forecasted growth, creating a significant gap between planned capacity and anticipated supply.
Existing pipeline operators have announced optimization initiatives that could address some of this growth. Trans Mountain indicates its system could accommodate an additional 300,000 barrels per day by the end of 2028, while Enbridge has made investment decisions on expansions totaling up to 250,000 barrels per day. South Bow is also marketing substantial capacity through existing corridors. These projects typically require lower capital investment and shorter timelines than constructing a new 1,250-kilometre pipeline with a new marine terminal.
To justify the new project, several commercial scenarios would need to materialize. The pipeline could attract existing barrels from competing routes, depend on oil-sands expansion significantly larger than current forecasts, or rely on public ownership and risk-absorption through toll design. Federal and provincial agreements indicate plans to implement financial supports aimed at encouraging production growth sufficient to fill the pipeline, suggesting capacity would precede the availability of barrels to fill it.
Market considerations add complexity to the volume outlook. California has reduced refining capacity while increasingly importing refined products rather than crude oil. China continues purchasing crude imports, but expanding electric vehicle adoption may weaken long-term diesel demand that historically supported heavy crude refining. The proposed pipeline would transport diluted heavy crude requiring specialized refinery infrastructure, limiting its addressable market. These factors underscore that establishing sufficient committed volumes remains a prerequisite for project viability.