AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona’s state primary

by | Jul 21, 2026 | Politics

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona’s state primary

Arizona’s Republican primary for governor is scheduled for Tuesday, with the nomination contest featuring four candidates: five-term U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, eight-term U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, and businessmen Ken Miceli and Scott Neely. Biggs has secured an endorsement from President Donald Trump, who also previously backed housing developer Karrin Taylor Robson before she withdrew from the race in February. The winner will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in the general election in November.

Republicans view the Arizona governorship as a significant pickup opportunity in a midterm cycle where voters historically have voted against the party holding the White House. Of seven Democratic governors in states Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election, only Hobbs is expected to face a genuinely competitive general election challenge. The successful nominee and their political organization could play a notable role in the 2028 presidential campaign, as Arizona is anticipated to remain a competitive battleground.

The primary also features competitive races for congressional seats and all state legislative positions. In the 1st Congressional District, which includes Scottsdale and northeast Phoenix areas, Republicans are choosing among state Rep. Joseph Chaplik, former Arizona Cardinals placekicker Jay Feely, and technology executive John Trobough to replace Schweikert. The Democratic primary for that seat includes former state Rep. Amish Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, among others. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both the state Senate and House, neither of which has been controlled by Democrats since 1992 and 1966, respectively.

As of Tuesday, approximately 4.3 million voters were registered in Arizona, comprising roughly 1.5 million Republicans, 1.2 million Democrats, and 1.5 million unaffiliated voters. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, with no results released before 11 p.m. ET. Arizona conducts elections predominantly by mail, with counties expected to release early voting results first.

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