AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary runoff

by | Jul 28, 2026 | Politics

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary runoff

South Dakota Republicans will participate in a primary runoff Tuesday to select their gubernatorial nominee for the November general election. Gov. Larry Rhoden and businessman Toby Doeden advanced to the runoff after finishing as the top two vote-getters in the June 2 primary, though neither reached the 35% threshold required to win outright nomination.

Rhoden assumed the governorship in early 2025 following the departure of then-Gov. Kristi Noem to join President Donald Trump’s Cabinet. In the initial primary contest, Doeden received approximately 31% of the vote, with Rhoden at roughly 25%, followed by U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 23% and state House Speaker Jon Hansen at approximately 21%. The winner of Tuesday’s runoff will face Democratic former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election.

Key geographic areas will likely influence the runoff outcome. Minnehaha County in the eastern part of the state, home to Sioux Falls, and Pennington County in the west, home to Rapid City, together contain approximately one-third of the state’s registered Republicans. Doeden narrowly led Johnson in Minnehaha County during the primary and held approximately a 7-point advantage over Rhoden in Pennington County. Rhoden secured support across central and northwestern regions, including leads in Meade, Lawrence, and Hughes counties. Lincoln County, located in the suburbs south of Sioux Falls and representing the state’s third-largest population center, emerged as a potential battleground area where neither candidate finished first or second.

The state has approximately 322,000 active registered Republicans eligible to vote. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time in most of the state, with some Mountain time locations closing at 9 p.m. Eastern time. Results are expected to begin reporting shortly after polls close, with South Dakota counties typically releasing all voting method results together throughout the evening.

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