The National Laboratory of the Rockies has released research examining the viability of five alternative aviation fuels as demand for jet fuel continues to rise. The study, funded by NASA, investigates sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, liquefied ethane, and Jet X as potential replacements or supplements to conventional Jet A and A-1 fuels.
According to the research, global demand for jet fuel is projected to increase from just over 100 billion gallons in 2025 to 165 billion gallons by 2050. The primary advantage of these emerging fuels is their ability to be produced domestically using renewable feedstocks and electricity rather than imported oil, potentially insulating the aviation industry from supply chain disruptions and price volatility.
Sustainable aviation fuel stands as the most developed option, already available commercially since 2016 and able to replace up to 50 percent of conventional jet fuel in aircraft. However, SAF currently represents only 1 percent of worldwide jet fuel consumption. Production challenges include higher costs—typically exceeding $6 per gallon—and limited biorefinery capacity. As conventional jet fuel prices climb toward $4 per gallon and higher, the cost differential between SAF and traditional fuels is narrowing. Researchers estimate sufficient raw materials exist to produce 80 percent of projected demand by 2050.
Other candidates include cryogenic fuels—liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied ethane—which would require new airport infrastructure and aircraft designs but offer long-term benefits for energy security. Jet X, an early-stage synthetic fuel still under investigation, aims to improve fuel economy while reducing environmental impacts around airports.
Experts indicate that advancing these alternative fuels will require coordinated efforts among governments, manufacturers, and fuel producers, along with continued research to reduce production costs and establish necessary safety standards and infrastructure requirements.
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