Factcheck: No, Europe’s heatwaves are not being ‘caused’ by declining air pollution

by | Jul 27, 2026 | Climate Change

Factcheck: No, Europe’s heatwaves are not being ‘caused’ by declining air pollution

Europe has experienced record-breaking heatwaves this summer, prompting widespread media coverage and scientific analysis. Recent reporting by the UK’s Daily Telegraph and GB News incorrectly framed a new study as demonstrating that heatwaves are “caused” by falling air pollution levels. The headlines were amplified on social media by climate-skeptic politicians who claimed the findings undermine net-zero policies.

Researchers involved in and reviewing the study have clarified that the framing is inaccurate. A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters examines how declining aerosol pollution affects atmospheric circulation patterns in Europe. As countries improved air quality from the 1980s onward, aerosol particles that once reflected sunlight and cooled the climate gradually diminished. This reduction can contribute to heatwaves both directly, by allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface, and indirectly, by influencing jet stream behavior and creating slow-moving atmospheric patterns that trap heat over regions.

However, scientists emphasize that while declining pollution has influenced Europe’s warming patterns, it has not “caused” the heatwaves. Instead, the reduction of aerosol cooling has allowed the underlying warming from greenhouse gas emissions to become more visible. Climate scientist Erich Fischer explains that heatwaves result from high-pressure systems occurring in a climate warmed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The study’s lead author acknowledged that the contribution of greenhouse gases remains the most important factor in Europe’s excess warming compared to other northern hemisphere regions.

The misinterpretation prompted criticism from the scientific community. Researchers noted that attempts to link the findings to net-zero climate policies are “simply wrong,” as air pollution reduction efforts predated net-zero goals by decades. Additionally, scientists identified an error in both the study and media reporting attributing Europe’s air quality improvements to the Montreal Protocol, which addressed ozone-depleting gases rather than air pollution. The scientific consensus maintains that human-caused CO2 emissions, not declining pollution, are responsible for the consequences of global warming.

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