Europe’s record-breaking heatwaves this summer have prompted significant media coverage, including reports attributing the heat to falling pollution levels. The Daily Telegraph and GB News published articles with headlines suggesting heatwaves were “caused” by declining air pollution, drawing attention from prominent climate-skeptic figures including Richard Tice of Reform UK, who used the coverage to argue against net-zero policies.
Research published in Geophysical Research Letters examined how air pollution affects atmospheric circulation patterns in Europe, specifically focusing on long-term summer temperature trends. The study found that declining aerosol pollution has contributed to more frequent quasi-stationary Rossby waves—slow-moving meanders in the jet stream that can trap weather systems over regions and prolong heatwaves. However, scientists emphasize this represents a contributing factor rather than a primary cause.
Climate scientists told Carbon Brief that characterizing heatwaves as “caused” by declining pollution is scientifically inaccurate. According to Prof Erich Fischer at ETH Zurich, heatwaves are caused by high-pressure systems that have become more frequent and intense due to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. The reduction in aerosol cooling has merely revealed the full extent of warming that was previously masked by air pollution. Study lead author Dr Pedro Roldán-Gómez acknowledged that media interpretations stating most excess European warming stems from declining aerosols were “misleading” and “could lead to wrong interpretations.”
Additionally, scientists disputed claims linking the study to net-zero policies. Prof Bjørn Samset of Norway’s Center for International Climate Research noted that efforts to reduce air pollution have occurred since the 1980s, decades before net-zero became a policy goal, making such connections “simply wrong.” The article and study also attributed declining European air pollution to the Montreal Protocol, which scientists identified as a significant error—the protocol addressed ozone-depleting gases, not general air pollution.
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