A significant shift in Venezuelan crude oil commerce is underway as major refiners and energy companies establish direct supply contracts with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), circumventing the commodity trading intermediaries that previously controlled market access.
For the previous six months, global trading houses Vitol and Trafigura maintained dominant positions in Venezuelan crude marketing following exclusive U.S. Treasury licenses granted after January political developments. These traders leveraged their logistical infrastructure, fleet capacity, and historical relationships with PDVSA to collectively move over 100 million barrels. However, as special licenses expire in June 2027, the trading monopoly is dissolving. PDVSA is actively returning to its pre-2019 operational model, which prioritizes direct relationships with refiners and joint-venture partners rather than middlemen.
Several major corporations have already secured direct agreements. Phillips 66 resumed purchasing spot cargoes directly from PDVSA in July, receiving three allocations of Merey 16 crude suited to its U.S. Gulf Coast facilities. Reliance Industries of India loaded a 2-million-barrel cargo directly in April, while Chevron expanded Venezuelan exports to 293,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, up from earlier levels. European majors including Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni similarly expanded direct crude liftings to supply their refining operations and offset accumulated receivables from prior Venezuelan market supply agreements.
Venezuela’s total crude production has increased substantially, reaching over 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, compared to 847,000 barrels per day in 2025. Industry analysts project further expansion to 1.37 million barrels per day by year-end. However, recovery efforts face constraints from severe shortages of functional oilfield services and drilling equipment. Rystad Energy estimates a 17% production increase remains technically feasible by 2028, though operational limitations are determining actual recovery pace. By eliminating reseller premiums, PDVSA improves realized prices while reshaping refining economics throughout the Gulf Coast region.
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