The Wisconsin Elections Commission issued an advisory informing voters that betting on elections in which they cast ballots violates state law and could result in ballot disqualification or prosecution. The commission was simply restating a Wisconsin election law originally passed in 1849, according to Commissioner Ann Jacobs. The warning prompted significant backlash on social media from Kalshi, a major prediction market company, which characterized the law as illegal voter suppression.
Prediction markets have grown increasingly mainstream, with billions of dollars traded weekly on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The companies expect midterm elections to become a major betting event. However, election betting is illegal in some or all circumstances in 32 states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Kalshi and the Trump administration contend that prediction markets should be regulated federally as financial products called swaps, while nearly half the states, including Wisconsin, argue the companies function as gambling operators subject to state gaming laws.
Election integrity experts have raised concerns about potential risks. Matt Barreto, director of the UCLA Voting Rights Project, noted that foreign actors or partisan interests could use prediction markets to artificially boost a candidate’s perceived popularity to influence voter turnout. Additionally, the prediction market industry has faced allegations of insider trading, with cases involving individuals from political campaigns and government offices. Barreto warned of scenarios where election workers with financial stakes in outcomes could manipulate vote counts or tallies.
Kalshi argues that election betting increases political engagement among voters who might otherwise not participate, positioning restrictions as voter suppression. The company recently blocked dozens of political campaign staffers attempting to bet on their own candidates. Election experts acknowledge that while most states have vote-counting safeguards that would prevent large-scale manipulation, election betting could provide ammunition for those seeking to question election result legitimacy. Kalshi declined to comment further on the controversy but has launched a midterm election dashboard enabling traders to monitor and wager on dozens of races simultaneously.
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