Gray whales in the Pacific Ocean are experiencing dramatically elevated death rates attributed primarily to climate change-driven reductions in sea ice that deplete their food sources, according to environmental groups and marine scientists. The population has declined sharply from an estimated 20,000 animals in 2019 to fewer than 13,000 currently, with mortality estimates for the period ranging between 2,500 and 8,000 whales—a scale that meets scientific criteria for a catastrophic mortality event.
Marine biologists tracking the die-off face challenges in determining exact numbers since they can only count whales that wash ashore. Recorded strandings have surged compared to historical averages, with 179 documented in 2025 and 146 carcasses counted through the first half of this year, compared to an annual average of 43 between 2006 and 2023. Scientific estimates suggest the actual death toll may be substantially higher, with mortality ratios between observed and unobserved offshore deaths ranging from 7-to-1 to 25-to-1.
The whales, which migrate annually between Baja California and Alaska for feeding, face multiple compounding threats beyond climate impacts. Ship strikes, oil spills, microplastic pollution, algal blooms, and harvesting operations in Russia also contribute to the population decline. Environmental organizations have petitioned federal regulators to restore endangered species protections, which were removed in 1994 following the species’ recovery from near-extinction in the 1970s.
Government and advocacy groups are exploring mitigation strategies, including voluntary ship speed reduction zones implemented in California that have reportedly decreased whale strike mortality by approximately 50 percent. Similar programs face resistance in other West Coast states due to shipping industry opposition. Federal action on the petition for species relisting is expected within the coming weeks.