As 2026 progresses past its midpoint, an exceptionally strong El Niño pattern is developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to substantially influence global temperatures for the remainder of the year and into 2027. The rapidly intensifying conditions have prompted significant upward revisions to temperature forecasts, reshaping expectations for annual records in ways that were not apparent earlier in the year.
During the first six months of 2026, global temperatures ranked as the third-warmest half-year on record across six independent datasets maintained by different meteorological organizations, trailing only 2024 and 2025. Individual months showed an accelerating warming trend, with both May and June ranking as the second-warmest ever recorded for those respective months. June saw Copernicus report a new record for global sea surface temperatures over ice-free oceans. The developing El Niño became clearly visible in tropical Pacific data beginning in April, when ocean temperatures crossed established thresholds for El Niño conditions and have continued strengthening at an exceptionally rapid pace through July.
Forecasting models analyzed by Carbon Brief indicate the El Niño event could reach unprecedented strength by the end of the year, potentially surpassing the 2015-16 event that previously held the record in the modern observational era. The median prediction from 14 separate modeling groups suggests peak temperatures that would make 2026 the strongest El Niño on record. This intensification has increased the probability that 2026 will set a new global annual temperature record from 19 percent in April to 35 percent currently. However, the likelihood varies substantially depending on which temperature dataset is consulted, ranging from 66 percent for Berkeley Earth to just 9 percent for one reanalysis product, primarily reflecting how exceptionally warm 2024 was recorded as being by different methodologies.
Temperature impacts from the peak El Niño conditions are likely to be most pronounced in 2027, as global temperatures typically lag behind tropical Pacific changes by several months. Carbon Brief’s projections estimate 2027 could reach approximately 1.71 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a 92 percent probability of setting a new record that year and a 94 percent chance of exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold specified in international climate agreements. Notable recent regional extremes include a severe heat dome that affected Western Europe in late June, with France setting a new national heat record of 44.3 degrees Celsius and unprecedented warmth affecting the United Kingdom across consecutive days. Arctic sea ice has remained at record-low levels for much of 2026, setting new daily minima on 39 separate occasions through early July.
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