The Guardian consulted Prof Ed Hawkins, a leading UK climate scientist at the University of Reading known for creating the “climate stripes” visualization, to address common misconceptions about current heatwaves and their connection to human-caused climate change.
Hawkins responded to claims that societies can simply adapt to higher temperatures by noting that the “normal” baseline for human and natural life is fundamentally shifting. While global average temperatures have risen by approximately 1 degree Celsius, regional extremes have warmed faster—for instance, heatwaves in southern England have intensified by around 3 degrees Celsius. He also disputed suggestions that scientific disagreement exists on the human role in warming, stating that there is certainty among climate scientists that fossil fuel burning is the primary driver of global warming and that every heatwave is hotter than it would be without greenhouse gas emissions.
Regarding natural climate factors, Hawkins explained that while weather patterns like El Niño have always existed and contribute to extreme events, current conditions are more severe due to the warmer baseline climate. He dismissed claims about Earth’s orbital changes, noting that orbital mechanics would have cooled the planet since the Industrial Revolution if not for fossil fuel emissions. Comparing recent heatwaves to the 1976 UK heatwave, he highlighted that June of this year saw temperatures approximately two degrees hotter than June 1976 across a much wider geographic area.
Hawkins addressed concerns about determining causation in specific extreme weather events by explaining that while climate change does not directly create weather patterns, it intensifies their consequences. Attribution studies consistently show that human activities are making heatwaves hotter. He noted that temperature records dating to the early 1800s demonstrate clear warming trends, with current atmospheric carbon dioxide levels exceeding anything found in ice-core records spanning hundreds of thousands of years.
On public health and infrastructure concerns, Hawkins emphasized that vulnerable populations—those with health conditions, elderly individuals, and workers in hot environments—face genuine risks during heatwaves. He also noted that British infrastructure was designed for cooler climates and lacks the cooling systems common in Mediterranean countries. Heat warning systems, he stressed, demonstrably save lives, citing a 2003 European heatwave that caused tens of thousands of deaths and prompted improved preparedness measures. Hawkins concluded that while the challenge is significant, human action remains capable of stabilizing the climate through achieving net zero emissions, making the outcome dependent on present decisions.
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