Crop prices have climbed to their highest levels in three years, signaling potential increases in food costs at retail stores worldwide. Two primary factors are contributing to this situation: extreme weather patterns and ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region disrupting grain trade flows, combined with instability in fertilizer markets linked to regional geopolitical tensions and the closure of a critical shipping route.
The International Food Policy Research Institute characterizes the current situation as an “input crisis” with potential to escalate into a broader food shortage crisis, particularly affecting lower-income nations. Synthetic fertilizer depends on petroleum products, making fertilizer markets highly vulnerable to oil disruptions and supply shocks. The Middle East supplies approximately one-third of global urea imports. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, approximately 3.9 million tonnes of urea exports—roughly 30 percent of the region’s annual fertilizer shipments—have been effectively blocked from reaching markets.
While fertilizer prices spiked immediately following the initial closure at the end of February before stabilizing, prolonged regional conflict threatens to sustain market volatility. Production facilities in the region are operating at reduced capacity to avoid excessive accumulation of inventory. Although urea can be stored for several months under normal conditions, high temperatures and humidity pose deterioration risks, raising concerns about potential significant supply shortages as the conflict continues.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption compounds existing supply chain challenges stemming from renewed conflict in Black Sea ports and Ukraine’s reduced grain exports relative to pre-2020 levels. A United Nations report warns that escalating energy and fertilizer costs driven by multiple regional conflicts could result in 9 to 18 million additional people facing food insecurity globally. The average cost of a healthy diet has increased by nearly 25 percent between 2021 and the present, with Latin America and the Caribbean experiencing the highest expenses.
Experts emphasize that addressing food security requires coordinated political commitment, sustained financial investment, and supportive policy frameworks. The convergence of multiple crises—ranging from climate-related disasters to ongoing military conflicts—has tested global food systems while simultaneously highlighting the need for greater resilience to protect vulnerable populations, farming communities, and consumers.
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