Data from 30 American cities indicate a substantial decline in homicide rates during the first half of this year relative to the same period in 2025, according to a report released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, an independent nonpartisan research organization. The analysis found approximately 215 fewer homicides across the surveyed cities, representing an 18% decrease. Should current trends persist through the end of the year, the annual homicide rate would reach its lowest point in over a century.
The report tracked 13 crime categories and documented improvements in nine of them, including carjackings, residential burglary, and aggravated assaults. Conversely, increases were recorded in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses during the comparison period. Notable among the positive findings was a 23% decline in what researchers describe as crime lethality—the proportion of serious violent crimes that result in fatalities. Residential burglaries fell 13% year-over-year and decreased 50% compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
The breadth of improvements across cities with varying political leadership and different public safety approaches suggests that no single local policy or initiative is responsible for the declines. According to Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, the positive trends span jurisdictions with diverse political affiliations, housing conditions, economic circumstances, and enforcement strategies. Experts cited multiple potential contributing factors, including reduced drug consumption limiting illegal market activity, federal pandemic-related funding directed toward social programs such as teacher and social worker positions that engage high-risk youth, and enhanced firearm background check legislation.
However, the improvements were not universal. Approximately one-third of the sampled cities experienced increases in homicides when comparing the first half of 2026 to the corresponding 2025 period. Norfolk, Virginia recorded a 64% increase, while San Francisco saw a 55% increase. Over a longer time frame, only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis had higher homicide counts in 2026 than in 2019. Researchers emphasized that multiple factors influence crime variations between locations and that comprehensive study of current trends may provide valuable insights for future public safety policy.
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