Ron Avi Astor, a prominent scholar of school violence at UCLA, announced a significant shift in his understanding of what drives school shootings during the American Educational Research Association annual meeting in April. For many years, Astor had advocated for interventions focused on improving school climate, reducing bullying, implementing social-emotional learning programs, and providing trauma-informed care based on his belief that these measures would prevent shootings.
Astor’s reconsideration came after reviewing empirical evidence showing a troubling disconnect. While California experienced a steady decline in students bringing weapons to schools over the quarter century since the Columbine High School massacre, the nation simultaneously saw a sharp rise in school shooting incidents. This data prompted him to reassess the underlying factors motivating perpetrators and to acknowledge that his previous framework had missed critical elements.
Astor now contends that many school shooters are primarily motivated by a desire for national attention and notoriety rather than by local school-based grievances. He believes perpetrators deliberately target schools as venues for gaining media coverage, studying previous mass attacks and participating in online communities where they learn from other incidents. According to his revised analysis, most perpetrators are suicidal individuals who commit homicide specifically to ensure they will be remembered.
Based on this reorientation, Astor has revised his policy recommendations substantially. Rather than concentrating solely on school-based prevention efforts, he now emphasizes the importance of media and social media companies adopting guidelines that limit coverage of perpetrators, delay publication of manifestos and videos, and prioritize victim-centered reporting. He compares school shootings to suicide contagions and terrorism, where extensive publicity can inspire copycat incidents.
Astor acknowledges the challenges inherent in persuading media outlets and social media platforms to change practices and notes he cannot definitively prove such modifications would reduce shootings. Nevertheless, he believes the approach merits implementation. His willingness to publicly abandon previous conclusions based on evolving evidence demonstrates a commitment to evidence-based policymaking in addressing school violence.
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