The Social Security trust fund faces a potential depletion timeline, with the retirement trust fund projected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032 according to the program’s annual trustees report released in June. This represents a three-month acceleration from previous projections. At that point, the program would be able to pay approximately 78% of scheduled benefits. If combined with the disability trust fund, the depletion date extends to the third quarter of 2034, at which time roughly 83% of benefits would remain payable.
In response to this timeline, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the PROMISE Act earlier this month, which would create an expedited procedure for Congress to address Social Security’s solvency. The proposal would require the Social Security Advisory Board to develop a plan ensuring trust fund solvency for at least 50 years. The plan would then advance through Congress with specific procedural requirements, including a three-fifths Senate vote and a House majority vote for passage.
AAPR, a nonprofit advocacy organization focused on senior issues, formally opposed the proposal in a July 21 letter. The organization’s Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer stated that the fast-track process could undermine transparency and accountability. AARP contended that the Advisory Board would have limited time for deliberation and that the process would restrict lawmakers’ ability to amend proposals. Additionally, the organization noted that floor debates scheduled during the lame-duck session following November elections would involve members no longer accountable to voters.
Proponents of the PROMISE Act, including a Durbin spokesperson, countered that the proposal would actually increase scrutiny and debate compared to typical legislative matters. The Bipartisan Policy Center and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget have endorsed the measure. Two additional related proposals have also been introduced to address Social Security and broader fiscal challenges. AARP separately opposed those efforts for similar reasons, citing concerns about bypassing regular legislative order.
Any changes to Social Security require approval from both chambers of Congress and both parties, given the supermajority requirements involved. Lawmakers supporting action emphasized that continued delay would increase the costs and complexity of eventual reforms.
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