The UK government, Google, and several research institutions are launching Operation Blue Skies, a 30-month initiative designed to test whether artificial intelligence can reduce the climate impact of aircraft contrails. The trial will focus on the Shanwick Oceanic airspace in the eastern North Atlantic, an area responsible for approximately 5% of global contrail warming.
Contrails, or vapour trails, form when hot aircraft engine exhaust meets cold air at high altitude, creating ice crystals. While many disappear quickly, those forming in particularly cold and humid conditions can persist and spread, trapping atmospheric heat. According to project participants, contrail warming may account for roughly one-third of aviation’s total climate warming effect, though uncertainty exists around the precise figure.
The project uses satellite imagery and flight data to identify where contrails have previously formed, then combines this information with weather forecasting to predict future high-risk areas. Air traffic control personnel will use these predictions to direct pilots to avoid affected regions, typically by adjusting aircraft altitude by approximately 2,000 feet—a routine procedure already used to avoid turbulence. Testing will occur during selected evenings and nights in the winters of 2026-27 and 2027-28, when North Atlantic air traffic is lower, with approximately 10,000 flights expected to pass through the airspace during trial periods.
Concerns have been raised about whether altitude changes might increase fuel consumption and create additional carbon emissions elsewhere. Project leaders indicate that prior trials suggest such fuel penalties are minimal—less than 1% additional CO2—compared to the substantial climate benefit of preventing contrail formation. Previous airline-level testing has achieved reductions of 60-70% in contrail formation or warming. The Department for Transport is providing £2.65m toward the programme, with Google contributing £1.4m in computational resources and research support. Results will be published for wider scientific review.
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