The trade of Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers has fundamentally altered the American League Cy Young Award landscape, marking the first year since 2023 that a non-Skubal pitcher will claim the honor. The AL race now appears to be consolidating around two primary candidates, though several other pitchers remain in contention.
Dylan Cease of the Toronto Blue Jays has positioned himself as the frontrunner. Cease leads the American League in both versions of pitcher wins above replacement and strikeouts while ranking second in ERA by a margin of 0.02. At 126⅓ innings pitched, his workload presents no immediate shutdown concerns, and he has demonstrated durability by previously reaching 189⅓ innings in a season. Cease is 3-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 56 strikeouts across his last six starts. The Blue Jays record of 13-8 when Cease starts compared to 41-54 without him underscores his impact. Cease finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2024 and second in 2022, suggesting a clear trajectory toward winning the award.
Gerrit Schlittler of the New York Yankees represents a close second with comparable statistical credentials. Schlittler leads the AL in ERA at 2.26 and ranks second in WHIP and innings pitched while sitting third in strikeouts. His metrics place him second behind Cease in both WAR calculations. However, concerns linger regarding potential injury risk. Schlittler worked 164 innings between minor leagues and the major leagues during the previous season, a career high, and currently stands at 139⅔ innings this season. The Yankees’ likely cautious approach heading into an anticipated playoff run could impact his availability down the stretch.
Several other pitchers merit consideration. Sonny Gray of the Boston Red Sox boasts a 14-2 record on a surging team but faces questions about underlying peripherals and strikeout production. Evan Williams of the Toronto Blue Jays, positioned 11-6 on a division contender, has generated recent momentum with exceptional strikeout production. Cal Rasmussen, Bryson Burke, and Tanner Messick also remain in the conversation, though various statistical or workload considerations limit their perceived viability. Nick Martinez, despite an 11-3 record and 2.65 ERA, lacks listed betting odds despite meriting discussion as a top-five candidate.
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