Researchers in Missoula, Montana have completed the first heat mapping initiative for the state and region, documenting how vegetation and green space influence local temperatures. The project, conducted by Climate Smart Missoula in partnership with the city and county, utilized volunteers who drove transects equipped with sensors recording temperature and humidity measurements. Data analysis by CAPA Strategies produced a publicly available heat map revealing that neighborhoods with substantial tree cover and green space run significantly cooler than developed areas, with temperature differences reaching nearly 20 degrees across the county.
The research addresses a significant gap in heat island effect documentation, as most prior studies have focused on major urban centers rather than rural regions. Missoula’s climate has shifted in recent years, with hotter summers and warmer nights becoming more prevalent. County average annual temperatures are projected to increase 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, presenting challenges for infrastructure and residents in a region historically unprepared for extreme heat, given that Montana has among the lowest residential air conditioning rates nationally.
The heat map identified expected hotspots in downtown Missoula, Southgate Mall, the Northside, and Westside areas, while cooler zones included the University District and Rattlesnake neighborhoods with mature tree canopies. Unexpected findings included dry, unmanaged open lands acting as heat islands and densely forested areas like Seeley Lake retaining overnight heat. Research indicates that for every 1 degree Celsius temperature increase, emergency calls increase by approximately 1 percent, with rural communities containing older populations facing heightened vulnerability.
The city and county launched the Stay Cool Missoula campaign to build community resilience and prevent heat-related deaths. Climate Smart Missoula has utilized the heat map to target tree-planting efforts in lower-income neighborhoods with minimal tree coverage. The mapping project was among eleven communities nationwide selected for NOAA funding in 2025, though the initiative faced disruption when the Trump administration terminated funding in May 2025, which had been allocated through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
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