Researchers in Missoula County, Montana have completed the region’s first comprehensive heat mapping initiative, documenting how vegetation and landscape features influence local temperatures. Climate Smart Missoula partnered with city and county officials along with the climate adaptation consulting firm CAPA Strategies to conduct the analysis. Volunteer teams collected temperature and humidity data during transects across the county in summer 2025, which analysts then converted into a publicly available heat map.
The research reveals substantial temperature variations throughout the county, with some neighborhoods measuring nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than others depending on tree cover and green space. Areas with dense mature trees, such as the University District and Rattlesnake neighborhoods, maintain cooler temperatures compared to more developed areas like downtown Missoula, the Northside, and Westside. The findings align with patterns observed in larger cities, where affluent neighborhoods tend to have greater tree coverage and correspondingly lower temperatures, while lower-income areas experience greater heat exposure.
The analysis identified unexpected heat patterns as well. Undeveloped lots and brown open lands act as heat islands, particularly when invasive species replace native vegetation. Densely forested areas like Seeley Lake and Evaro retain heat overnight due to their thick canopies, producing some of the highest recorded morning temperatures in the county.
The heat mapping project occurs as Missoula faces increasing temperature pressures. The county has historically experienced warm, dry summers, but recent years have brought hotter conditions and warmer nights, with more days exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit annually. Average temperatures are projected to increase 4 to 5 degrees by 2050. Montana has among the nation’s lowest residential air conditioning rates, making the infrastructure challenge particularly acute. Research indicates that for every 1 degree Celsius increase, emergency calls rise by approximately 1 percent, with rural areas containing older populations experiencing disproportionate impacts.
The heat map is informing local resilience efforts through the Stay Cool Missoula campaign and targeting tree-planting initiatives in underserved neighborhoods. The project represents the first heat mapping effort in Montana and the broader Rocky Mountain region, joining 10 other communities nationwide funded through a federal program established in 2025.
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