Researchers in Missoula, Montana have completed the first comprehensive heat mapping initiative in the state and broader Rocky Mountain region. Climate Smart Missoula, in partnership with the city and county, secured federal funding to conduct the analysis, with volunteers collecting temperature and humidity data throughout the county during the previous summer. The consulting firm CAPA Strategies processed the data into a publicly available heat map, marking a significant effort to understand urban heat patterns in rural areas, an area that has received less research attention than major cities.
The initiative carries particular relevance for the region, as Missoula has experienced shifting climate patterns in recent years. Historically characterized by warm, dry summers with temperatures in the 80s and occasional 90-degree days before cooling sharply after sunset, the area now faces hotter summers with warmer nights. Projections indicate the county’s average annual temperature could increase by 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. This presents infrastructure challenges, as Montana homes and buildings were constructed for cooler climates and the state has one of the lowest residential air conditioning rates in the country.
The heat map revealed temperature variations of nearly 20 degrees across Missoula County, correlating strongly with vegetation and tree cover. Tree-dense neighborhoods such as the University District and Rattlesnake area remain significantly cooler than more developed areas like downtown Missoula and neighborhoods near Southgate Mall. Surprising findings included how bare or sparsely vegetated areas, including empty lots dominated by invasive species, function as heat islands. Additionally, heavily forested rural areas like Seeley Lake and Evaro retain substantial heat overnight due to dense canopy coverage.
The initiative supports ongoing efforts to address heat-related public health concerns. Research indicates heat represents the deadliest weather phenomenon Americans face, with studies showing 911 calls increase by 1 percent for every 1 degree Celsius temperature increase. Climate Smart Missoula launched the Stay Cool Missoula campaign to build community resilience, including targeted tree-planting efforts in lower-income neighborhoods with minimal tree coverage. The heat map has also informed discussions about industrial development projects and future county regulations.
Missoula was one of 11 communities nationwide funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for heat mapping in 2025. However, the project faced disruption when the Trump administration terminated the federal funding in May 2025, which had been allocated through the Inflation Reduction Act. Despite the funding cancellation, local partners continued the work through existing staff and pro bono contributions from CAPA Strategies and other collaborators, demonstrating commitment to addressing warming despite federal policy changes.
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