Researchers at King’s College London examined stroke risk factor trends across more than 8,500 adults tracked over a 30-year period through the South London Stroke Register, one of the world’s longest-running population-based stroke registers.
The analysis found that the prevalence of stroke risk factors, particularly diabetes and hypertension, is increasing at a faster rate among Black African and Caribbean populations than among white participants. Diabetes occurred at roughly twice the rate in Black Caribbean and Black African individuals compared with white participants on the register. High blood pressure prevalence was documented at 29% higher in Black Caribbean people and 47% higher in Black African people than in white participants. Over the 30-year study period, diabetes rates rose most rapidly among Black African participants, climbing from 21% between 1995 and 2004 to 41% between 2015 and 2024.
Additionally, those from Black African backgrounds experienced stroke at notably higher rates without prior risk factor diagnosis, occurring in 12% of cases compared with 6% among white people. Research leaders noted that socioeconomic factors also played a significant role, with diabetes prevalence 23% higher among those in manual occupations and 21% higher in individuals with lower education levels. Across all socioeconomic groups, the steepest increases in both diabetes and high blood pressure occurred among those with routine and manual jobs and lower education levels.
Dr Eva Emmett, lead author of the study, called for earlier and more targeted prevention strategies, suggesting that current NHS health checks beginning at age 40 may arrive too late for higher-risk populations who tend to experience stroke at younger ages. Officials from the Stroke Association emphasized that prevention benefits are not being distributed equitably, with individuals from Black African and Caribbean communities and those in more deprived circumstances developing risk factors earlier and experiencing strokes before identification and treatment can occur.
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