A delegation from the African Union arrived in Sudan to conduct a two-day field mission focused on advancing ceasefire negotiations, improving humanitarian aid delivery, and reviving political processes to address the conflict that has caused tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions over three years. The delegation’s visit comes after the Peace and Security Council determined earlier in the year to undertake such an engagement as part of broader efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability in the country.
The timing of the mission coincides with a shifting military landscape in Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces have recently secured control over significant portions of Khartoum, altering the balance of power, though the Rapid Support Forces maintain substantial territorial holdings across Darfur and continue demonstrating military capability in other regions. The Kordofan region, strategically positioned between areas controlled by each faction, has emerged as a critical battleground where fighting remains intense. Neither side has achieved decisive victory, suggesting potential room for diplomatic engagement, though both continue to assess their prospects for further military gains.
The AU’s diplomatic agenda operates on two interconnected tracks: achieving sufficient reduction in hostilities to enable humanitarian assistance and political talks, while simultaneously working toward an inclusive political settlement that transcends a mere power-sharing arrangement between two armed groups. This reflects lessons from Sudan’s previous transition period, which collapsed following the 2019 overthrow of Omar al-Bashir due to disagreements between civilian and military actors over governance structures. The current conflict began in April 2023 after escalating tensions over proposed civilian governance transitions.
The AU faces substantial constraints in its mediation efforts. Analysts note the organization lacks enforcement mechanisms, financial leverage, and dedicated military forces necessary to compel either warring party toward compromise. Previous diplomatic initiatives, including commitments made in Jeddah in May 2023, failed to halt fighting despite international involvement from the United Nations, United States, and Saudi Arabia. The fundamental challenge remains convincing armed groups to accept negotiated settlements when both assess continued fighting as potentially advantageous to their positions.
Success of the current delegation’s visit will ultimately depend on securing commitments with operational significance beyond the field mission’s conclusion and creating sufficient diplomatic space for substantive negotiations to advance. African-led mediation has achieved results in other contexts, though Sudan’s conflict involving heavily armed territorial actors presents notably distinct challenges requiring coordination across multiple regional and international stakeholders.
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