Research from World Weather Attribution has linked carbon pollution to a significant increase in marine heatwaves affecting European seas during the current summer period. The analysis examined sea surface temperatures across four distinct ocean regions and compared observations with climate model simulations to determine the role of human-caused global warming.
The study found that the hottest periods recorded would have been nearly impossible in a preindustrial climate in three of the four regions examined. In the Celtic region, which encompasses waters around the British Isles, heat levels reached frequencies historically associated with once-per-century events. Researchers determined that climate change accounted for approximately two-thirds of the excess warmth, contributing temperature increases of about 2C in the Mediterranean, 1.4C in the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula, and 1.3C around Ireland and the Channel.
The expanded marine heatwaves have affected approximately 90 percent of the Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast region and 80 percent of the western Mediterranean. Without the effects of climate change, scientists indicated these figures would be roughly half as extensive. The analysis, which has not yet undergone peer review, occurs amid one of Europe’s hottest summers on record, characterized by widespread heatwaves that have resulted in significant human casualties and agricultural damage.
Marine heatwaves pose substantial ecological consequences, including mortality of species that form marine habitats such as corals and macroalgae, potentially disrupting ecosystems and causing widespread fish and seabird die-offs. Research published earlier this year linked marine heatwaves to more intense rainfall over adjacent coastal areas, with extreme precipitation influenced by strong ocean heating potentially 20 to 30 percent higher than typical levels. Additionally, ocean heatwaves raise nighttime temperatures in coastal regions, as water bodies cool more slowly than land surfaces.
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