Researchers have published findings in Science Advances demonstrating that children under ten represent the age group most exposed to additional heat-stress days caused by climate change. The analysis combines climate modeling with demographic data to identify which populations face the greatest exposure to combinations of high temperature and humidity.
According to the study, approximately 583 million children in this age bracket—representing 44% of all children under ten worldwide—currently experience at least 20 attributable heat-stress days annually. The research defines a heat-stress day as one where wet-bulb globe temperature, a measure accounting for both heat and humidity, exceeds 28 degrees Celsius, which indicates moderate heat stress. By contrast, 190 million people aged 60-69 face similar exposure levels, accounting for 30% of that demographic. The disparity reflects both the larger absolute number of young people alive today and the geographic distribution of populations, with rapidly growing youth populations concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions including south Asia, southeast Asia, and west Africa.
The researchers employed climate models to compare current conditions with pre-industrial climate patterns, attributing the additional heat-stress days specifically to human-caused warming. They note that countries in low-latitude tropical regions experience the most extra heat-stress days, with examples including Côte d’Ivoire, where residents face approximately 112 heat-stress days annually, roughly half attributable to climate change. Wealthier northern hemisphere countries with older populations show significantly lower exposure, such as Germany with only 0.1 heat-stress days per year.
The study highlights that children face greater vulnerability to heat stress than other age groups because their bodies are less able to regulate temperature. The research team projects that as global temperatures continue rising, children will maintain this heightened exposure, particularly in developing nations that have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. The findings underscore disparities in climate impacts across regions and age groups, with implications for discussions around climate justice and intergenerational equity.
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