Research published in Nature provides a comprehensive assessment of how climate change has affected malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa over the past century and projects future impacts. The study, which analyzed more than 50,000 blood samples collected from the region between 1900 and 2016, reveals a complex redistribution of malaria risk driven by shifting temperature patterns.
Since 1900, climate change has resulted in approximately one additional malaria case per 1,000 children across sub-Saharan Africa on average. However, this continent-wide figure masks significant regional variations. Cooler areas in the east and south have experienced increased malaria risk as rising temperatures have expanded mosquito habitats into previously unsuitable regions, particularly in highlands like Ethiopia and southern African countries. Conversely, warming in already hot western African regions is pushing temperatures above the optimal range for malaria-carrying mosquitoes, reducing transmission rates by an estimated four cases per 1,000 children annually by 2014.
The research employed climate attribution methods to isolate climate change impacts from other factors affecting malaria transmission. Scientists developed statistical models incorporating temperature, rainfall, economic development, and healthcare access, finding that malaria prevalence peaks at approximately 24.9 degrees Celsius. Rainfall was found to be less influential than temperature in predicting malaria rates.
Projections for the remainder of this century indicate that current trends will largely persist under intermediate emissions scenarios aligned with existing climate policies. Western and central African regions could see reductions of up to 16 cases per 1,000 children by century’s end, while areas including the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa may experience increases of around 30 cases per 1,000 children. However, experts emphasize that climate change is not the primary driver of malaria dynamics, with public health interventions, surveillance, and treatment proving substantially more influential in controlling the disease.
The World Health Organization reported 610,000 malaria deaths in 2024, with Africa accounting for 95 percent of cases and deaths globally. The study underscores that climate change, while reshaping malaria’s geographic distribution, should not overshadow the critical importance of sustained investment in prevention, detection, and treatment programs.
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