A new economic assessment contends that approving the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea would generate substantial climate-related costs that dwarf their projected financial benefits to the UK.
The analysis estimates the worldwide economic damage from carbon pollution produced by these fields would range between £119bn and £336bn through 2100, compared with the £28.7bn in value to Britain that Adura, the company backing the development, has projected. Researchers applied peer-reviewed economic modeling on climate damages to production forecasts supplied by the company, though the figures may undercount total harm since they exclude losses from extreme weather intensification, rising sea levels, and climate-related deaths.
The Rosebank and Jackdaw decision has become a contentious political issue, with the fossil fuel industry, certain energy officials, and right-wing political groups supporting development while centre and left-leaning parties, climate scientists, and environmental organizations oppose it. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is also confronting resistance from within his own Labour party MPs. Some proponents argue new drilling would enhance UK energy security and economic growth, but energy experts counter that these commodities trade internationally, making such claims questionable.
University researchers involved in and outside the analysis emphasized that long-term climate costs would likely exceed development benefits significantly. They highlighted that the UK’s clean energy sector has expanded three times faster than the overall economy in recent years, suggesting renewable alternatives warrant greater investment priority. Government officials maintained that North Sea oil and gas remain strategically important, while the government’s official climate advisers have stated that achieving net zero presents a more cost-effective economic path than continued fossil fuel dependence.
The economic damage estimates span £119bn to £336bn based on assumptions about future climate impacts, with Rosebank accounting for roughly 88 percent of projected damages. Under higher production scenarios, potential costs could reach £170bn to £482bn. Adura, jointly owned by Shell and Norway’s Equinor, declined to comment on the findings.
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