An economic analysis examining proposed oil and gas development in the North Sea has concluded that climate damage would substantially outweigh financial benefits. The assessment estimates that carbon pollution from the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields would generate between £119bn and £336bn in economic damage through the coming decades, compared to an estimated £28.7bn in value to the UK cited by Adura, the company promoting the development.
The analysis applies peer-reviewed climate research to production estimates for the fields, though researchers note their figures likely understate total harm by excluding impacts from extreme weather, sea level rise, and climate-related deaths. The work has been submitted to the Rosebank consultation process and to academic journals for peer review. Under scenario modeling that assumes higher production levels, the estimated damage range expands to £170bn to £482bn, with only 6% of that higher estimate needing to materialize in the UK to eliminate all projected economic gains.
The proposal has become politically contentious, with the oil industry and some energy officials supporting approval while environmental campaigners, climate scientists, and most political parties across the center-left spectrum oppose it. Energy experts have questioned claims that development would reduce UK bills or improve energy security, characterizing such arguments as misconceptions since oil and gas are internationally traded commodities. The UK government has defended the North Sea as a vital asset for jobs and energy security, while official climate advisers have stated that achieving net zero represents a more cost-effective economic path than continued fossil fuel reliance.
Accademics examining the findings have characterized the general conclusion as sound, though they note the specific numerical estimates involve various assumptions. One researcher emphasized that climate damage from these fields would likely exceed economic benefits, particularly given that costs would be distributed globally while benefits concentrate domestically. The analysis suggests Rosebank accounts for approximately 88% of projected damages, leading to speculation the government might approve Jackdaw while rejecting Rosebank.
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