Coal continues to dominate global electricity generation, accounting for approximately 10,974 terawatt-hours out of 33,313 TWh produced worldwide this year, according to International Energy Agency forecasts. This represents nearly one-third of total global electricity supply and exceeds natural gas generation by a substantial margin. Natural gas ranks second at 6,976 TWh, while hydropower, solar, wind and nuclear power trail significantly behind.
The IEA had initially anticipated a decline in coal-fired generation this year as renewable capacity expanded. However, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has disrupted liquefied natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, elevating gas prices substantially in European and Asian markets. This price surge has made coal more economically attractive for power generators with dual-fuel capability, prompting the agency to revise its forecast upward. The loss of affordable natural gas supply has paradoxically strengthened coal’s competitive position as utilities seek cost-effective alternatives.
Coal’s dominance is increasingly concentrated in Asia, with China alone producing more than half of the world’s coal-generated electricity while simultaneously leading global renewable energy installations. India relies even more heavily on coal, with the fuel supplying roughly 71 percent of its electricity generation. These countries face the dual challenge of meeting rapidly growing electricity demand while transitioning toward cleaner energy sources.
Renewable energy sources are expanding rapidly, with solar and wind generation expected to increase approximately 30 percent and 10 percent respectively this year. However, the combined output of wind and solar remains substantially below coal generation. The IEA forecasts coal will remain the world’s largest individual electricity source through 2030, declining only modestly at approximately 0.9 percent annually. Growing global electricity demand, particularly in Asia, means much newly installed renewable capacity must serve demand growth rather than displace existing coal generation, slowing the transition away from fossil fuels.
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